Are psychological status and trust in information related to vaccine hesitancy during COVID-19 pandemic? A latent class and mediation analyses in Italy.

Despite the recognized benefits of the COVID-19 vaccination, vaccine hesitancy (VH) remains one of the biggest challenges of the mass vaccination campaign. Most studies investigating VH determinants focused on socio-demographics and direct relationships. In this study, we aimed at: 1) identifying subgroups of people differently affected by the pandemic, in terms of psychological status; 2) investigating the role of psychological status and trust in information as possible mediators of the relationship between individual characteristics and VH. To this purpose, a latent class analysis (LCA) followed by a mediation analysis were carried out on data from a survey conducted in January 2021 on 1011 Italian citizens. LCA identified four different subgroups characterized by a differential psychological impact of the pandemic: the extremely affected (21.1%), the highly affected (49.1%), the moderately affected (21.8%) and the slightly affected (8%). We found that VH decreased with the increase of psychological impact (from 59.3% to 23.9%). In the mediation analysis, past vaccination refusal, age 45-54 years and lower-than-average income, were all indirectly related to higher VH through mistrust in COVID-19 information. Differently, the psychological impact counteracted the greater VH in females, the negative effect of social media among youngest (<35 years) and the negative effect of mistrust in the lower-than-average-income subgroup. Knowledge of psychological profile of hesitant individuals, their level of trust and the sources of information they access, together with their sociodemographic characteristics provides a more comprehensive picture of VH determinants that can be used by public health stakeholders to effectively design and adapt communication campaigns.

Comparison of drug prescribing before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-national European study.

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on health care, with disruption to routine clinical care. Our aim was to describe changes in prescription drugs dispensing in the primary and outpatient sectors during the first year of the pandemic across Europe. METHODS: We used routine administrative data on dispensed medicines in eight European countries (five whole countries, three represented by one region each) from January 2017 to March 2021 to compare the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic with the preceding 3 years. RESULTS: In the 10 therapeutic subgroups with the highest dispensed volumes across all countries/regions the relative changes between the COVID-19 period and the year before were mostly of a magnitude similar to changes between previous periods. However, for drugs for obstructive airway diseases the changes in the COVID-19 period were stronger in several countries/regions. In all countries/regions a decrease in dispensed DDDs of antibiotics for systemic use (from -39.4% in Romagna to -14.2% in Scotland) and nasal preparations (from -34.4% in Lithuania to -5.7% in Sweden) was observed. We observed a stockpiling effect in the total market in March 2020 in six countries/regions. In Czechia the observed increase was not significant and in Slovenia volumes increased only after the end of the first lockdown. We found an increase in average therapeutic quantity per pack dispensed, which, however, exceeded 5% only in Slovenia, Germany, and Czechia. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this first European cross-national comparison show a substantial decrease in dispensed volumes of antibiotics for systemic use in all countries/regions. The results also indicate that the provision of medicines for common chronic conditions was mostly resilient to challenges faced during the pandemic. However, there were notable differences between the countries/regions for some therapeutic areas.

Vaccinations and Healthy Ageing: How to Rise to the Challenge Following a Life-Course Vaccination Approach.

In the context of an ageing population, one of the major Public Health goals is to promote healthy ageing. To rise to this challenge, rethinking conventional prevention paradigms and implementing them with vaccination at all stages of life is necessary. Indeed, vaccinations are able to both prevent pathogen specific diseases and all their downstream effects and to increase overall immune system plasticity and resilience. Our aim is to discuss the obstacles and opportunities in pursuing a "life-course vaccination approach" and to highlight the role of vaccines in healthy ageing. In doing so, we address the close connections between immunology and vaccinology advances and introduce the novel concept of immune fitness. Finally, we conclude that even though vaccinology is making giant steps towards tailored vaccination strategies, more studies are needed to investigate this topic.

The impact of health policies and vaccine rollout on the COVID-19 pandemic waves in Italy.

Background: Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, different response measures were taken to contain the spread of the virus. These include a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions and a mass vaccination campaign. While not definitive, epidemiological measures provide some indication of the impact of such measures on the dynamics of the pandemic and lessons to better prepare for future emergencies. Objective: To describe the impact of vaccine rollout and health policies on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy from March 2020 to October 2021 using a set of epidemiological indicators. Methods: We performed a time-trend analysis of new confirmed COVID-19 cases, patients in hospital, and deaths. Using line charts, we informally assessed the relationship of these indicators with the immunization campaign and other health policies. Daily aggregate data were gathered from GitHub repositories of certified data from Italy's Government and Civil Protection. Results: The immunization coverage increased starting in March 2021, with a parallel decrease in COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Despite different implementation approaches, the vaccine coverage growth rate had a similar pattern across regions. A comprehensive approach including measures such as requiring face masks and a "Green Pass" to enter indoor places also helped contain the pandemic. Conclusions: The vaccine rollout had a major effect on COVID-19 in Italy, especially on hospitalizations and deaths. Before the vaccine was available, however, other non-pharmaceutical interventions also helped to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate its effect on the population.

COVID-19 Patient Management in Outpatient Setting: A Population-Based Study from Southern Italy.

Evidence on treatments for early-stage COVID-19 in outpatient setting is sparse. We explored the pattern of use of drugs prescribed for COVID-19 outpatients' management in Southern Italy in the period February 2020-January 2021. This population-based cohort study was conducted using COVID-19 surveillance registry from Caserta Local Health Unit, which was linked to claims databases from the same catchment area. The date of SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosis was the index date (ID). We evaluated demographic and clinical characteristics of the study drug users and the pattern of use of drugs prescribed for outpatient COVID-19 management. Overall, 40,030 patients were included in the analyses, with a median (IQR) age of 44 (27-58) years. More than half of the included patients were asymptomatic at the ID. Overall, during the study period, 720 (1.8%) patients died due to COVID-19. Azithromycin and glucocorticoids were the most frequently prescribed drugs, while oxygen was the less frequently prescribed therapy. The cumulative rate of recovery from COVID-19 was 84.2% at 30 days from ID and it was lower among older patients. In this study we documented that the drug prescribing patterns for COVID-19 treatment in an outpatient setting from Southern Italy was not supported from current evidence on beneficial therapies for early treatment of COVID-19, thus highlighting the need to implement strategies for improving appropriate drug prescribing in general practice.

Assessing the Role of Trust in Information Sources, Adoption of Preventive Practices, Volunteering and Degree of Training on Biological Risk Prevention, on Perceived Risk of Infection and Usage of Personal Protective Equipment Among Italian Medical Students During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.

Background: During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the University of Bologna Medical School surveyed medical students to learn more about their preparation to confront challenges posed by the pandemic and whether it affects perceptions of viral infection risk. This information could help design risk-reduction interventions with training to mitigate possible viral exposure. Method: A cross-sectional online survey examining students' characteristics, volunteer status, adoption of evidence-based preventive measures, trust in information sources used, infectious disease training, and knowledge of PPE usage in relation to perceived risk of infection from SARS-CoV-2 in daily living, academic, and healthcare activities. A multivariate path model estimated the simultaneous influences of all exogenous factors on perceived risk. A Poisson regression model assessed the same multivariate effects on knowledge of PPE usage. Results: The analysis sample included 537 respondents. Perceived risk of infection was highest in hospital activities. On average, students were able to use only four out of seven types of PPE albeit they adopted most of the evidence-based preventive measures. Adoption of preventive measures was positively associated with perceived risk of COVID infection. Conversely, training on PPE usage and volunteer work were associated with lower perceived risk in healthcare setting and higher PPE knowledge. Conclusion: Implementing early safety-based educational programs remedy students' lack of knowledge in infectious disease prevention and mitigate their risk of infection. Voluntary work should be encouraged with potential benefit for both their continued medical training and strengthening the healthcare system's response to public health emergencies.

Mis-tweeting communication: a Vaccine Hesitancy analysis among twitter users in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A previously unseen body of scientific knowledge of varying quality has been produced during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It has proven extremely difficult to navigate for experts and laymen alike, originating a phenomenon described as "Infodemic", a breeding ground for misinformation. This has a potential impact on vaccine hesitancy that must be considered in a situation where efficient vaccination campaigns are of the greatest importance. We aimed at describing the polarization and volumes of Italian language tweets in the months before and after the start of the vaccination campaign in Italy. METHODS: Tweets were sampled in the October 2020-January 2021 period. The characteristics of the dataset were analyzed after manual annotation as Anti-Vax, Pro-Vax and Neutral, which allowed for the definition of a polarity score for each tweet. RESULTS: Based on the annotated tweets, we could identify 29.6% of the 2,538 unique users as anti-Vax and 12.1% as pro-Vax, with a strong disagreement in annotation in 7.1% of the tweets. We observed a change in the proportion of retweets to anti-Vax and pro-Vax messages after the start of the vaccination campaign in Italy. Although the most shared tweets are those of opposite orientation, the most retweeted users are moderately polarized.  Conclusions: The disagreement on the manual classification of tweets highlights a potential risk for misinterpretation of tweets among the general population. Our study reinforces the need to focus Public Health's attention on the new social media with the aim of increasing vaccine confidence, especially in the context of the current pandemic.

COVID-19 Vaccination in Pregnancy, Paediatrics, Immunocompromised Patients, and Persons with History of Allergy or Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Overview of Current Recommendations and Pre- and Post-Marketing Evidence for Vaccine Efficacy and Safety.

To date, four vaccines have been authorised for emergency use and under conditional approval by the European Medicines Agency to prevent COVID-19: Comirnaty, COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, Spikevax (previously COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna) and Vaxzevria (previously COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca). Although the benefit-risk profile of these vaccines was proven to be largely favourable in the general population, evidence in special cohorts initially excluded from the pivotal trials, such as pregnant and breastfeeding women, children/adolescents, immunocompromised people and persons with a history of allergy or previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, is still limited. In this narrative review, we critically overview pre- and post-marketing evidence on the potential benefits and risks of marketed COVID-19 vaccines in the above-mentioned special cohorts. In addition, we summarise the recommendations of the scientific societies and regulatory agencies about COVID-19 primary prevention in the same vaccinee categories.

Vaccine Hesitancy towards COVID-19 Vaccination: Investigating the Role of Information Sources through a Mediation Analysis.

Mass vaccination campaigns have been implemented worldwide to counteract the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic, however their effectiveness could be challenged by vaccine hesitancy. The tremendous rise in the use of social media have made them acquire a leading role as an information source, thus representing a crucial factor at play that could contribute to increase or mitigate vaccine hesitancy, as information sources play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion and perceptions. The aims of the study were to investigate if information sources could affect the attitude towards COVID-19 vaccination and if they could act as a mediator in the relationship between individual characteristics and vaccine hesitancy. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted by a professional panellist on a representative sample of 1011 citizens from the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy in January 2021. A mediation analysis using structural equation modelling was performed. Our results show how social media directly or indirectly increases vaccine hesitancy towards COVID-19 vaccination, while the opposite effect was observed for institutional websites. Given the global widespread use of social media, their use should be enhanced to disseminate scientifically sound information to a greater audience to counteract vaccine hesitancy, while at the same time continuing to promote and update institutional websites that have proven to be effective in reducing vaccine hesitancy.

COVID-19 incidence and mortality in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients.

Many studies reported a higher risk of COVID-19 disease among patients on dialysis or with kidney transplantation, and the poor outcome of COVID-19 in these patients. Patients in conservative management for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have received attention only recently, therefore less is known about how COVID-19 affects this population. The aim of this study was to provide evidence on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in CKD patients followed up in an integrated healthcare program and in the population living in the same catchment area. The study population included CKD patients recruited in the Emilia-Romagna Prevention of Progressive Renal Insufficiency (PIRP) project, followed up in the 4 nephrology units (Ravenna, Forlì, Cesena and Rimini) of the Romagna Local Health Authority (Italy) and alive at 1.01.2020. We estimated the incidence of COVID-19, its related mortality and the excess mortality within this PIRP cohort as of 31.07.2020. COVID-19 incidence in CKD patients was 4.09% (193/4,716 patients), while in the general population it was 0.46% (5,195/1,125,574). The crude mortality rate among CKD patients with COVID-19 was 44.6% (86/193), compared to 4.7% (215/4,523) in CKD patients without COVID-19. The excess mortality of March-April 2020 was +69.8% than the average mortality of March-April 2015-19 in the PIRP cohort. In a cohort mostly including regularly followed up CKD patients, the incidence of COVID-19 among CKD patients was strongly related to the spread of the infection in the community, while its lethality is associated with the underlying kidney condition and comorbidities. COVID-19 related mortality was about ten times higher than that of CKD patients without COVID. For this reason, it is urgent to offer a direct protection to CKD patients by prioritizing their vaccination.

Are We Ready for the Arrival of the New COVID-19 Vaccinations? Great Promises and Unknown Challenges Still to Come.

While the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to strike and collect its death toll throughout the globe, as of 31 January 2021, the vaccine candidates worldwide were 292, of which 70 were in clinical testing. Several vaccines have been approved worldwide, and in particular, three have been so far authorized for use in the EU. Vaccination can be, in fact, an efficient way to mitigate the devastating effect of the pandemic and offer protection to some vulnerable strata of the population (i.e., the elderly) and reduce the social and economic burden of the current crisis. Regardless, a question is still open: after vaccination availability for the public, will vaccination campaigns be effective in reaching all the strata and a sufficient number of people in order to guarantee herd immunity? In other words: after we have it, will we be able to use it? Following the trends in vaccine hesitancy in recent years, there is a growing distrust of COVID-19 vaccinations. In addition, the online context and competition between pro- and anti-vaxxers show a trend in which anti-vaccination movements tend to capture the attention of those who are hesitant. Describing this context and analyzing its possible causes, what interventions or strategies could be effective to reduce COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy? Will social media trend analysis be helpful in trying to solve this complex issue? Are there perspectives for an efficient implementation of COVID-19 vaccination coverage as well as for all the other vaccinations?

Small-scale spatial distribution of COVID-19-related excess mortality.

Mortality due to massive events like the COVID-19 pandemic is underestimated because of several reasons, among which the impossibility to track all positive cases and the inadequacy of coding systems are presumably the most relevant. Therefore, the most affordable method to estimate COVID-19-related mortality is excess mortality (EM). Very often, though, EM is calculated on large spatial units that may entail different EM patterns and without stratifying deaths by age or sex, while, especially in the case of epidemics, it is important to identify the areas that suffered a higher death toll or that were spared. We developed the Stata COVID19_EM.ado procedure that estimates EM within municipalities in six subgroups defined by sex and age class using official data provided by ISTAT (Italian National Statistics Bureau) on deaths occurred from 2015 to 2020. Using simple linear regression models, we estimated the mortality trend in each age-and-sex subgroup and obtained the expected deaths of 2020 by extrapolating the linear trend. The results are then displayed using choropleth maps. Subsequently, local autocorrelation maps, which allow to appreciate the presence of local clusters of high or low EM, may be obtained using an R procedure that we developed.•We focused on estimating excess mortality in small-scale spatial units (municipalities) and in population strata defined by age and sex.•This method gives a deeper insight on excess mortality than summary figures at regional or national level, enabling to identify the local areas that suffered the most and the high-risk population subgroups within them.•This type of analysis could be replicated on different time frames, which might correspond to successive epidemic waves, as well as to periods in which containment measures were enforced and for different age classes; moreover, it could be applied in every instance of mortality crisis within a region or a country.

SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Testing: The Tower of Babel.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Testing represents one of the main pillars of public health response to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. This paper shows how accuracy and utility of testing programs depend not just on the type of tests, but on the context as well. METHODS: We describe the testing methods that have been developed and the possible testing strategies; then, we focus on two possible methods of population-wide testing, i.e., pooled testing and testing with rapid antigen tests. We show the accuracy of split-pooling method and how, in different pre-test probability scenarios, the positive and negative predictive values vary using rapid antigen tests. RESULTS: Split-pooling, followed by retesting of negative results, shows a higher sensitivity than individual testing and requires fewer tests. In case of low pre-test probability, a negative result with antigen test could allow to rule out the infection, while, in case of a positive result, a confirmatory molecular test would be necessary. CONCLUSIONS: Test performance alone is not enough to properly choose which test to use; goals and context of the testing program are essential. We advocate the use of pooled strategies when planning population-wide screening, and the weekly use of rapid tests for close periodic monitoring in low-prevalence populations.

Patterns of COVID-19 related excess mortality in the municipalities of Northern Italy during the first wave of the pandemic.

The impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on mortality in Italy has been described at the regional level, while less is known about mortality in municipalities, although the spatial distribution of COVID-19 in its first wave has been uneven. We aimed to describe the excess mortality due to COVID-19 from February 23rd to April 30th, 2020 in the three most affected Italian regions, in age and gender subgroups within each municipality. Excess mortality varied widely among municipalities even within the same region; it was higher among the elderly and higher in males except in the ≥75 age group. Thus, nearby municipalities may show a different mortality burden despite being under common regional health policies, possibly as a result of local reinforcements of regional policies. Identifying the municipalities where mortality was higher and the pathways used by the virus to spread may help to concentrate efforts in understanding the reasons why this happened and to identify the frailest areas in light of recurrences of the epidemic.

SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Vaccines: The Promises and the Challenges Ahead.

The development of a new vaccine usually consists of a linear sequence of several steps and lasts many years [...].

COVID-19 and the re-opening of schools: a policy maker's dilemma.

The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. In order to counter this epidemic, several countries put in place different restrictive measures, such as the school's closure and a total lockdown. However, as the knowledge on the disease progresses, clinical evidence showed that children mainly have asymptomatic or mild disease and it has been suggested that they are also less likely to spread the virus. Moreover, the lockdown and the school closure could have negative consequences on children, affecting their social life, their education and their mental health. As many countries have already entered or are planning a phase of gradual lifting of the containment measures of social distancing, it seems plausible that the re-opening of nursery schools and primary schools could be considered a policy to be implemented at an early stage of recovery efforts, putting in place measures to do it safely, such as the maintenance of social distance, the reorganisation of classes into smaller groups, the provision of adequate sanitization of spaces, furniture and toys, the prompt identification of cases in the school environment and their tracing. Therefore, policy makers have the task of balancing pros and cons of the school re-opening strategy, taking into account psychological, educational and social consequences for children and their families. Another issue to be considered is represented by socio-economic disparities and inequalities which could be amplified by school's closure.

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model

<p>The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations;on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.</p>